Optimizing sowing window, cultivar choice, and plant density to boost maize yield under RCP8.5 climate scenario of CMIP5.

The impacts of climate change and possible adaptations to food security are a global concern and need greater focus in arid and semi-arid regions. It includes scenario of Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP-RCP8.5). For this purpose, two DSSAT maize models (CSM-CERES and CSM-IXIM) were calibrated and tested with two different maize cultivars namely Single Cross 10 (SC10) and Three Way Cross 324 (TW24) using a dataset of three growing seasons in Nile Delta. SC10 is a long-growing cultivar that is resistant to abiotic stresses, whereas TW24 is short and sensitive to such harsh conditions. The calibrated models were then employed to predict maize yield in baseline (1981-2010) and under future time slices (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s) using three Global Climate Models (GCMs) under CMIP5-RCP8.5 scenario. In addition, the use of various adaptation options as shifting planting date, increasing sowing density, and genotypes was included in crop models. Simulation analysis showed that, averaged over three GCMs and two crop models, the yield of late maturity cultivar (SC10) decreased by 4.1, 17.2, and 55.9% for the three time slices of 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, compared to baseline yield (1981-2010). Such reduction increased with early maturity cultivar (TW24), recording 12.4, 40.6, and 71.3% for near (2030s), mid (2050s), and late century (2080s) respectively relative to baseline yield. The most suitable adaptation options included choosing a stress-resistant genotype, changing the planting date to plus or minus 30 days from baseline planting date, and raising the sowing density to 9 m-2 plants. These insights could minimize the potential reduction of climate change-induced yields by 39% by late century.

Serological Detection of Flavivirus Infections in Saudi Baboons.

To evaluate the risk to public health from Flaviviruses in the southwest region of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, we screened as sentinels, 50 commensal hamadryas baboons located at a peri-domestic site on the outskirts of Ta'if City in February 2013. Of the baboons, 12% [95% CI 5, 24], 0% [95% CI 0, 7] and 10% [95% CI 3, 22] were seropositive in a pan-Flavivirus ELISA (anti-pan-WNV 1-2, Usutu, Zika), Dengue virus 1-4 ELISA (anti-DENV 1-4) and WNV-1 PRNT, respectively, indicating Flavirus exposures of the subjects with possible risk to public health in the area.

Comparative Assessment of Medicinal Plant Utilization among Balti and Shina Communities in the Periphery of Deosai National Park, Pakistan.

Traditional ecological knowledge, linguistic, and sociocultural perspectives are key contributors to environmental sustainability. Therefore, it is essential to identify and preserve this biocultural heritage, especially that of indigenous communities and minorities. We conducted an ethnobotanical survey to document the plant species used by the Balti and Shina communities living in the buffer zone of Deosai National Park (DNP), western Himalayas, Pakistan. A combination of random and purposive sampling techniques was adapted, targeting middle- and old-aged informants. A total of 46 semi-structured interviews were conducted and the gathered data were evaluated using relative frequency of citation (RFC) and through comparison with the ethnomedicinal literature. In total, 47 medicinal plant species belonging to 42 genera and 23 families were recorded. Baltis and Shinas cited 42 and 38 plant species, respectively, that were used to treat various diseases. About 60% of species were common among both communities, but 27.7% and 12.8% were exclusive to Baltis and Shinas, respectively. Considerable heterogeneity was noted in vernacular names, plant part(s) used, preparation, and administration. Ribes alpestre, Aconitum violaceum, Delphinium brunonianum, Thymus linearis, and Swertia petiolata were highly utilized species having RFCs > 50. In addition, 46% of medicinal uses, specifically that of Allardia tomentosa, A. tridactylites, Jurinea dolomiaea, and Gallium boreale, were reported for the first time from the region. Cross-cultural analysis revealed sociocultural gaps between both groups. Relatively, Baltis retained more ethnomedicinal knowledge and their traditional medicinal system is more closely associated with traditional Tibetan medicine. Generally, Balti and Shina communities retain substantial biocultural and ethnological diversity, which has been reflected in the present study. Our findings underline the importance and need for sustainable utilization of natural resources, specifically the plant species of this region. However, an in-depth ethnobotanical investigation may underpin the holistic comparative medical ethnobotany of the entire region.

Improving dog bite victim survey and estimation of annual human deaths due to suspected rabies cases in three selected Liberian cities and environs, 2008-2017.

Rabies remains a public health challenge of unknown magnitude in Liberia in spite of the goal of ensuring that no human in the country dies of rabies by 2030. The annual prevalence of Dog Bite Victims (DBVs) and true load of Annual Human Deaths (AHDs) due to rabies were not known. We investigated three selected cities of Liberia for annual prevalence of DBVs and true load of AHD due to suspected rabies, using 10-year retrospective record, 2008-2017 obtained from Buchanan, Gbarnga, and Voinjama, three socio-economically important cities in post-conflict Liberia. Data were sourced at County Reference Hospitals and at the Liberia National Institute of Health for these cities and their local environs. In addition, household questionnaire survey was used to identify and audit data quality for unreported DBVs, and treatment received from traditional caregivers. The proportion was used to audit the 10-year data on unreported DBVs in the cities. Descriptive statistics was used to summarize annual DBVs over the 10-year period in the three cities, respectively. A standardized clinical decision tree model was used to estimate AHDs due to suspected rabies. Based on questionnaire survey, 140/365, 148/375 and 146/350 DBVs did not visit any orthodox health facility in Buchanan, Gbarnga and Voinjama cities, respectively in 2014. An estimated total of 559 DBVs died of suspected rabies in the three cities and their environs during the 10-year period. Mean yearly prevalence of DBVs was 179±106.82, 393±257.85 and 76.9±38.11 per 100,000 population, while mean AHDs due to suspected rabies was 14.3±8.47, 35.5±23.25, and 6.1±3.21 per 100,000 population in Buchanan, Gbarnga, and Voinjama cities, respectively. The present findings provide annual prevalence of suspected rabies cases, corrected for under-reporting in three selected cities of Liberia. The findings would be useful in planning for stepwise actions towards rabies elimination, ensuring that no human dies of rabies in Liberia by 2030.

Update on Cardiovascular Safety of Incretin-Based Therapy in Adults With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Meta-Analysis of Cardiovascular Outcome Trials.

OBJECTIVES: The authors of 2 large randomized trials have recently published their findings related to the effects of a glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) (the HARMONY trial) and a dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP-4) inhibitor (the CARMELINA trial) on cardiovascular (CV) outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. In light of these new data, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of GLP-1RAs and DPP-4 inhibitors in CV outcome trials to assess their CV safety in patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We conducted a comprehensive literature search in the Embase and MEDLINE databases to identify trials involving GLP-1RAs and DPP-4 inhibitors with major CV-related outcomes reported, including major adverse CV events, CV death, myocardial infarction, stroke, death from any cause and hospitalization because of heart failure. A total of 9 CV outcome trials were included. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated based on the Mantel-Haenszel method. RESULTS: Relative to placebo, GLP-1RAs were associated with a statistically significant reduction in the odds of major adverse CV events (13%), CV death (12%), death from any cause (11%) and stroke (13%). DPP-4 inhibitors were comparable to placebo for all outcomes. Moreover, DPP-4 inhibitors were associated with a nonsignificant 5% increase in the odds of hospitalization from heart failure compared to placebo. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis demonstrated that GLP-1RAs were associated with a significant reduction in major adverse CV events, CV death, stroke and death from any cause, while DPP-4 inhibitors were comparable to placebo for all CV outcomes, including hospitalizations for heart failure.

Variations in basic demographics consequential to population size of governorate in Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia, divided into 5 planning regions, 13 administrative regions and further to 118 governorates (administrative units), has diverse demographic characteristics from one region to another and from one governorate to another. Rural to urban migration and an exodus of immigrants characterize the Kingdom, where development planning depend largely upon local level requirements based on economic activities. An attempt was made to analyze the population characteristics, such as population size, sex ratio, native to foreigner ratio, and households and persons per households by keeping governorate as unit of analysis. Data of two census period (2004 and 2010) was used in order to explore the situation and track the intercensal changes. Large variations in population were observed between governorates and it varied from 3686 to 5,007,886 in 2010. Governorates are divided according to the number of native population demarcating urbanization, modernization and infrastructure. During the intercensal period, the number of small governorates reduced and medium and large sized governorates increased mainly due to population growth. The average population in governorates was increased in total and in the larger governorates during the period. However, we noticed a reduction in the average population size in the small and medium sized governorates. The size of native population in a governorate influences the sex ratio, the native-foreigner ratio and the persons per household as well as the variations within the group of governorates. Analyses of lower level data shall aid not only to understand the situation but also to support local development policies.

Components and public health impact of population growth in the Arab world.

The Arab world, which consists of the 22 member states of the Arab League, is undergoing a rapid transition in demographics, including fertility, mortality, and migration. Comprising a distinctive geographic region spread across West Asia and North East Africa and unified by the Arabic language, these states share common values and characteristics despite having diverse economic and political conditions. The demographic lag (high fertility and low mortality) that characterizes the Arab world is unique, but the present trend of declining fertility, combined with the relatively low mortality, brings about significant changes in its population size. This research aimed to: (i) assess the population growth in the Arab world over 3 time periods, (ii) explore its components, and (iii) understand its public health impact. Data from the International Data Base (IDB) of the U.S. Census Bureau for 3 time periods (1992, 2002, and 2012) in 21 countries of the Arab world were analyzed by dividing them into four geographic sectors, namely, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), West Asia, Maghreb, and the Nile Valley African Horn. The population of the Arab world has grown considerably due to both natural growth and migration. The immigration is pronounced, especially into resource-intensive GCC nations, not only from East Asian and Central African countries but also from resource-thrifty (limited-resource) Arab nations. The migrations within, as well as outside, the Arab world reveal an interesting demographic phenomenon that requires further research: migration flows and trends. However, the transformations in public health statistics related to mortality-the impact of demographic changes-depict a new era in the Arab world.

Indigenous knowledge of folk medicines among tribal minorities in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, northwestern Pakistan.

ETHNOPHARMACOLOGICAL RELEVANCE: Mapping ethnomedicinal plants and associated indigenous knowledge of folk medicines can provide a comprehensive overview of individual herbs employed in health care. Reliance on medicinal plants in remote parts of northern Pakistan is high, especially among women, but no research has investigated specifically which plants are used. This study investigated indigenous knowledge of folk medicines among tribal minorities in selected sites in upper Swat, Buner and Chitral Districts in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Interviews were conducted with gender-specific focus groups using questionnaires and standardized data sheets, followed by forest walks in each of the visited areas. General medicinal herb use, preparations, storage, marketing and collection habits for each gender group were ascertained from the questionnaires. RESULTS: In total 168 women and 390 men were interviewed and provided information on 127 different shared medicinal species. Species use consensus among the informants ranged from 2.3% to 83.3%, with Cynodon dactylon, Avena sativa, Celtis australis, Datura stramonium, Solanum nigrum, Skimmia laureola, Spiraea nervosa, Ziziphus jujuba, Rumex hastatus, Plantago lanceolata, Lathyrus aphaca and Ficus palmata having the highest reported consensus. The survey also revealed that a number of medicinal species were exploited by the community for both marketing and personal use, and many of these species were reported as being rare, vulnerable or even endangered. CONCLUSIONS: The results revealed that women in all the three districts were important custodians of medicinal plant knowledge, but elder women in general and the women from Buner district in particular had a superior understanding of folk medicine. The forest walks revealed that women׳s traditional medicinal knowledge was based on a more limited diversity of plant species. People in tribal communities have an expressed interest in learning efficient techniques for medicinal plant collection, preparation, storage and cultivation advice, and to learn more about the potential of marketing medicinal herbs and ways to reach local market centers. Education and awareness were considered to be essential for improved health care and successful marketing.

Economic benefits of high value medicinal plants to Pakistani communities: an analysis of current practice and potential.

BACKGROUND: Poverty is pervasive in the Swat Valley, Pakistan. Most of the people survive by farming small landholdings. Many earn additional income by collecting and selling plant material for use in herbal medicine. This material is collected from wild populations but the people involved have little appreciation of the potential value of the plant material they collect and the long term impact their collecting has on local plant populations. METHODS: In 2012, existing practices in collecting and trading high value minor crops from Swat District, Pakistan, were analyzed. The focus of the study was on the collection pattern of medicinal plants as an economic activity within Swat District and the likely destinations of these products in national or international markets. Local collectors/farmers and dealers were surveyed about their collection efforts, quantities collected, prices received, and resulting incomes. Herbal markets in major cities of Pakistan were surveyed for current market trends, domestic sources of supply, imports and exports of herbal material, price patterns, and market product-quality requirements. RESULTS: It was observed that wild collection is almost the only source of medicinal plant raw material in the country, with virtually no cultivation. Gathering is mostly done by women and children of nomadic Middle Hill tribes who earn supplementary income through this activity, with the plants then brought into the market by collectors who are usually local farmers. The individuals involved in gathering and collecting are largely untrained regarding the pre-harvest and post-harvest treatment of collected material. Most of the collected material is sold to local middlemen. After that, the trade pattern is complex and heterogeneous, involving many players. CONCLUSIONS: Pakistan exports of high value plants generate over US$10.5 million annually in 2012, with a substantial percentage of the supply coming from Swat District, but its market share has been declining. Reasons for the decline were identified as unreliable and often poor quality of the material supplied, length of the supply chain, and poor marketing strategies. These problems can be addressed by improving the knowledge of those at the start of the supply chain, improving linkages among all steps in the chain, and developing sustainable harvesting practices.